Risks
The most significant risk will always be to children, families and care experienced adults, rather than the ‘care system’.
The primary risk is that Scotland does not #KeepThePromise – and that:
- despite huge buy-in, no political impediment, and years of work, Scotland fails.
- the lives of children, families, care experienced adults and those living on the edge of care, do not significantly change for the better.
- both the human and the financial costs of this failure continue.
- likely, in time, Scotland commissions another review into care.
In addition, there are significant contextual risks, and the last four years have sorely tested systems across Scotland to their limits, with more children and families living in conditions that bring them closer to the ‘care system’ with a workforce facing extreme pressure and diminishing resources.
However, taken together, the main issues – the need for wider systemic change and the testing of the tolerance of the ‘care system’ – mean it’s highly likely that from here on in, positive changes will become increasingly difficult to achieve, and the risks are therefore higher.
Plan 24-30 is, in part, a mitigation of these risks. Given the sequencing of all the changes required and the breadth of action required across policy, data, money, governance, and legislation as well as practice and culture, it is important the risks are captured at every level so they can be monitored. This means that all those working to #KeepThePromise must be alive to risk and its relevance to their specific actions.
The greatest risks to delivery of Plan 24-30, and the appetite and mitigation for them, are set out here. These need to be considered in all work to #KeepThePromise, broken down in detail as required, tracked, and where possible mitigated, by all those who have a part to play to #KeepThePromise.
There are areas of Plan 24-30 where the appetite for working differently and taking risks must be higher (such as across culture), and areas where there is no tolerance for risk (such as embedding voice). Because of the long-term nature in addressing these risks and because these aspects represent the reality just now, action to recognise and mitigate where possible the risks are key to delivering Plan 24-30.
The risks set out here have come directly from an assessment of progress to #KeepThePromise so far, taking account of the impact of Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis, and reflecting the update reports received from organisations through the development of Plan 24-30. This means that this is not an operational risk register, rather, it is whole system focused. This section is intended to guide, rather than replace, the detailed, specific, and ongoing work required to identify and mitigate risks associated with actions across Plan 24-30
|
Risks relating to Plan 24-30 |
Appetite |
Current risk level |
Proposed target risk |
|---|---|---|---|
|
#KeepThePromise - The overarching risk that the promise is not kept and that the lives of care experienced children, young people and their families is not significantly improved. |
Intolerance - The promise must be kept |
 |
 |
|
Resources – There is a risk that public finances and capacity remain focused on failure demand rather than preventative or upstream activities to support real improvements in the life chances of the care experienced community. |
High - Appetite for radically different approaches to maximise impact |
 |
|
|
Workforce and system capacity – There is a risk that there is a lack of capacity of the system to respond to the actions set out in Plan 24-30. |
High - Appetite for a different and more open approach |
|
|
|
Voice – There is a risk that the care experienced community’s voice is not at the heart of the changes needed to keep Plan 24-30. |
Intolerance - Ensuring Voice is at the heart of the promise is non-negotiable |
 |
|
|
Data collection and reporting - There is a risk that this continues to be:
|
High - Need for much more innovative approaches |
|
|
|
Governance – There is a risk that governance including scrutiny, continues to not be aligned to things that matter most to care experienced people’s lives and that the governance landscape remains too cluttered to #KeepThePromise. |
High - Need for much greater innovation and flexibility |
|
|
- Very high - High - Moderate - Low